At the time of writing, the Ottawa Senators have managed just twelve points in the thirteen games they have played so far in the 2024-2025 season. That translates to a points percentage (PTS%) of 0.462 – good enough for second-to-last spot in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division.
That’s not a record that even comes close to a playoff berth next spring. It’s unlikely that the Senators will be one of three teams in the division to automatically punch their ticket to the playoffs at the end of the season. Still, their fans hope they have a chance at a wildcard spot in the play-offs. Still, that won’t be easy, as wildcard teams have historically been required to have a PTS% of around .600.
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So now it’s time for the Senators faithful to ask themselves what kind of performance they need to see from their team over the rest of November so they can see the playoffs next spring. Canadian Tire Center.
NHL standings at American Thanksgiving predict play-off candidates
Where NHL teams stand at the end of November predicts their success, or lack thereof, for the entire season. Of the 240 teams they are in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving in the US since the 2005-06 season*, 184 have made the postseason the following spring. That is a success rate of 76.7 percent. This statistic is why fans put a laser-like focus on where their teams stand when Americans start frying turkey and Mars bars.
(*This statistic does not include the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.)
By the time the Americans gave their thanks last season, the Senators had taken themselves out of the playoffs by winning just eight of the seventeen games they played in October and November for a disappointing 0.471 PTS%.
Could this season be any different than what the Senators delivered in October and early November?
What the Ottawa Senators need to do in November to win the 2025 Wild Card Spot
The answer lies at least in part in how tough the Senators’ schedule is from Nov. 8 through the end of the month.
The Senators have ten games left in November. Those matches are evenly divided between home and away. Two of the games they play on the road are part of an easy three-game swing through the Western Conference. They usually play a game every other day.
Still, Ottawa’s schedule until the end of the month will be to retain their president of hockey operations and general manager (GM). Steve Staios awake at night, as seven of the teams his squad faces were playoff teams in 2024. Six of those are on a list of teams that are oddsmakers in Las Vegas said at the start of the season that he would make the 2025 Playoffs. The list includes the Carolina Hurricanes, Vegas Golden Knights, Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings.
Steve Staios, general manager of the Ottawa Senators (Amy Irvin / The hockey writers)
Here’s my take on what the Senators will face for the rest of November:
| Opponents of the Senators from November 8 to 30 | Probability of a Senators victory |
| Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks | High |
| Oil squirters | 50/50 |
| Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Canucks, Calgary Flames, Kings | Low |
If this graph is correct, the Senators have three games under their belts in the remainder of November and one in which they have an even chance of winning. That’s four games that should be in Ottawa’s win column. So to reach their goal of 0.600 PTS%, they need to steal three or four games from a group of teams that includes Toronto, Carolina, Vegas, Vancouver, Calgary and Los Angeles. That will not be an easy task.
Can the Ottawa Senators be a .600 hockey club?
There is no doubt that in order to win a wild card spot in the playoffs next spring, the Senators will need to achieve a PTS% of at least .600. It’s not often that teams do this with much less. That will be a tall order for the Senators, who have averaged a PTS% of just .442 over the past five full seasons.
Many experts point out that the Senators are an improved team this season and seemingly have all the pieces in place to compete for a wild card spot. Yet their record suggests otherwise, as they are just two points ahead of the last-place Montreal Canadiens.
But perhaps most concerning is that the Senators are losing games they simply can’t do. They included an embarrassing loss to the lowly Habs in their second game of the season, and most recently two in a row against the Buffalo Sabers and New York Islanders.
November is a make or break for the Ottawa Senators’ 2025 playoff hopes
So far in the season, the Senators have not shown that they are a playoff contender. Whether or not they are could reveal itself as November unfolds, much like losing seasons in the past.
