Packers vs. Lions: three reasons to believe

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is that? This will be the 50th home game under Matt LaFleur. He was an underdog seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time.

1. Jos Jacobs

There’s a reason why Jacobs hasn’t gotten much detail in some games. This way he can be at his best in games like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback, the offense starts with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in the Week 2 win over the Colts, when Willis started, and last week in Jacksonville, when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its only weak point. Well, weakness might be a strong word, but the Lions are 22nd this season with 4.66 yards per carry and 19th in the league. according to schedule adjusted expected points. They have totaled more than 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Fixing it was a priority this week.

“Yes, it’s something we’re taking note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, set boundaries and get our fans flowing and making plays. We will fill it up (during Thursday’s training), we will take it with us, and that is the best way.

“Do you want to get better at it, do you want to work on it? You have to work on it at full speed, just like in a game situation, and get some live reps in there. So we’ll continue to do that because we know teams will continue to attack us that way.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushes and touches and is fourth in rushing yards. Of the 44 backs with at least 50 carries, Jacobs ranks eighth with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

According to PFF, Detroit’s defense ranks 27th in missed tackle percentage.

“Very physical. They fly around as a unit,” said Jacobs. “They have a lot of guys who have played a lot at a high level. It’s going to be one of those games. It will be like a play-off match. We’ll see. We’ll see how it goes.”

According to PFF, Jacobs has broken 31 tackles this season, compared to 28 last year. His yards after contact are the best feature of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Aaron Jones-led Packers rushing attacks. Jacobs has added a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about acquiring a stick-to-the-wall back and changing the mentality,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “To see what he is like in the NFL and the violent, physical runner that he is, you just know their offensive line is looking to block that guy. There is an indication of how they operate in terms of the violence and physical nature of the game, because of who they allow to control the ball.

“So it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to make sure we stop that because if you let that happen, it’s not good for a defense to let a team run the ball and then being able to get the play-action passes that they have with these receivers that they have. So we have to do a good job in that area.”

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has emerged as the Packers’ biggest threat. “This guy is a playmaker,” Campbell said. Reed leads the teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4 yard average.

According to PFF, 65 recipients have been targeted at least 30 times. Reed ranks second with 8.5 yards per catch and ranks 15th with six missed tackles. His fifteen explosive plays (runs and catches) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s leading total.

Notably for this game, Reed has done most of his damage in the slot, where he ranks eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, tied for fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8 .2 YAC per catch and second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. Of the 28 defensive backs who have played at least 100 slot coverage snaps, he has allowed the fifth-most yards, third-most yards per snap and a passer rating of 101.1, according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football, but the Lions have given up the most fantasy football points to receivers. according to Razzbal.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions made a deal with the Packers to land Brian Branch. The Packers traded back one more time before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you’re seeing now with the way he’s playing,” Campbell said. “This is what you knew; He was competitive, explosive and had speed. … He can locate it, sticky hands, tough blocker, competitive. Man, he’ll come after you in the run game. And he’s a very smart, very smart player. He’s coming into his own and he’s getting better. For me he is a force and we will have to be ready for him as well as for the other receivers.”

3. Takeaways

The Packers are 6-2, thanks in large part to Jeff Hafley’s defense, which ranks No. 1 with 19 takeaways, No. 1 with nine fumbles recovered and No. 2 with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, ranks second in revenue margin at plus-10. Only three teams have fewer giveaways than Detroit’s five. The Lions have lost just one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers are having what they call a “ball meeting” to emphasize the importance of taking care of the football. The Lions have a similar emphasis. So much so that a member of the Titans staff tried to learn the secrets of success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“As coaches, they keep harping on it all the time,” Johnson told reporters Thursday. “It gets old, it gets redundant, but at some point I think these guys hear it in the back of their minds as they carry the ball down the field.

“We now have a quarterback who plays very smart and good football. He takes care of the ball. If it is presented to him on the field, he throws it; he has no problem tearing a dagger or throwing a stake across the field. But teams we continue to see get all this depth, he’ll check it out. So he’s just being very smart and deliberate with the way he’s attacking the coverage right now. So that keeps the ball out of danger from an interception standpoint.”

Goff is playing at about the highest level imaginable, but has been sacked eight times and fumbled four times in the last two games. So there could be opportunities for the Edgerrin Cooper-style sack/strip that produced last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts at the front, just like in every game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best we’ve ever seen, and then they have two really good running backs. So we really have to defend the run. They are explosive, powerful and their offensive line is really good.

“They built it the right way. They built it from within, but it has to start running. Obviously, they have good wide receivers, they have a very good tight end and the quarterback is as efficient as any quarterback in the NFL right now. I think they coach very well. I think their entire staff is doing a great job with their scheme, and what they did with the quarterback in his performance this year was very impressive.

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Lukas Van Ness is the #Packers‘ Greetings to the Service nominee. We discussed yesterday.https://t.co/RBqHqrEotc

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 2, 2024