Today we’re talking about a breakout story from this election cycle: the rise of prediction markets and election betting.
For the first time in a century, Americans can legally place bets on election results through a platform called Kalshi. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that these markets could distort the public’s understanding of our elections if treated like polls.
“There are reports now that this is one of those razor-thin elections that could be decided by hundreds of votes. So if you can convince a thousand people not to vote because there’s a perception that this is a done deal, that could impact a win,” said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy at Better Markets, a group that advocates for financial reforms.
In this Election Day episode, Dumas explains how Americans engage in election betting, the legal questions surrounding these prediction markets, and why he believes manipulation of these markets has the potential to influence elections.
Then we delve into the history of the “I Voted” sticker and hear a perfect poem for Election Day. Plus, a listener shares what moving abroad has taught them about the American voting system.
Here’s everything we talked about today:
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