WASHINGTON – Republicans have regained control of the White House and the Senate. Now all eyes are on the House of Representatives, which Democrats see as their last line of defense to stop newly-elected President Donald Trump and his agenda.
The struggle for the majority involves enormous stakes.
Will Trump wield a Republican trifecta that is expected to support his agenda and his demands? Or will he face a House led by Democrats, who would serve as a check on his legislative agenda and wield the power to investigate his administration?
With many competitive races still called, NBC News has not yet predicted which party will control the House of Representatives in 2025. But given Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Republicans in the House of Representatives are optimistic about their chances of maintaining their slim majority.
In a statement from West Palm Beach, Fla., where he spent time with Trump and his team, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted he and his party would retain control of the House.
“Republicans in the House of Representatives have been successful in securing critical changes in swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our battle-tested incumbents have secured re-election from coast to coast,” Johnson said in the statement. “The latest data and trends indicate that when all votes are tabulated, Republicans will have had our majority, even though we faced a map with 18 seats won by Biden.”
Democrats in Congress have been relatively quiet as they come to terms with Trump’s stunning victory, but are not throwing in the towel. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., sounded optimistic Wednesday afternoon and pointed to several bright spots. He said Democrats had filled open seats in Virginia and Michigan, won victories in Alabama and Louisiana over redistricting and were targeting four Republican seats in New York.
“The House remains very much in the game,” Jeffries said in a statement. “The path to regaining the majority now runs through ‘too close to call pick-up’ opportunities in Arizona, Oregon and Iowa – along with several Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley. Which party will have the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined. We must count every vote.”
House Democrats plan to hold a virtual members meeting Thursday to discuss the election results and next steps forward, according to an invitation shared with NBC News.
A different kind of battlefield
Which party controls the House will have major consequences for Trump’s second administration.
“It’s the difference between a Republican Party rubber stamp and some oversight of the Trump administration and control of his legislative agenda,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the progressive activist group Indivisible.
Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., said it’s a case of “deja vu all over again.”
“I was in the House of Representatives when Trump first became president. So I know what it’s like,” Boyle said. “Trump equals crazy chaos. Every day Trump runs from one thing to another. In the morning he fires one of his staffers by tweet, in the afternoon he tries to buy Greenland. So it is incumbent upon Democrats in the House of Representatives, whether in the majority or minority, to be as strong and united as ever.”
The battleground in the House of Representatives is distinct from the terrain that decided the Republican Party’s control of the presidency and Senate, as it runs largely through the suburbs where Democrats held their own in the otherwise disastrous elections of 2024 for the party. Harris bled among Latino voters and younger men, but she gained ground among white women, college graduates and older voters.
Because of the Republican Party’s razor-thin 220-212 majority, Democrats needed a net gain of just four seats to regain control of the House of Representatives, which they lost just two years ago. But so far, both parties have scored significant victories — either through redistricting or by upsetting incumbents — keeping the Republican Party’s control for now.
In New York, Democrats won a seat by defeating GOP freshmen Representative Brandon Williamsrepresenting a district in the Syracuse area. And another first-term lawmaker in the Empire State, the Republican Party Representative Marc Molinaro followed Democrat Josh Riley with 94% of votes counted, although NBC News has not yet called that race.
Meanwhile, Republicans ousted two vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state that Trump won early Wednesday morning. Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan unseated six-term Matt Cartwright in northeastern Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. Next door in the 7th District, Republican State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wildwho flipped a Republican seat in a 2018 special election.
“There is no sugar-coating this: this is a bitterly disappointing outcome,” Wild said in a statement conceding the race and congratulating her opponent.
Republicans also moved into an open seat Michigan’s 7th Districtafter Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin had decided to run for Senate.
Other races were too close to call. Republican Nick Begich III was leading Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by several percentage points in Alaska’s at-large district, which received about 70% of the vote. In Arizona, the vulnerable Republican was Rep. Juan Ciscomani closely behind Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel with about 60% of votes counted, while Republican Rep. David Schweikert had a slight lead over Democrat Amish Shah with more than 60% of the votes counted.
In Nebraska, moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon seemed on track to win re-election despite being a top Democratic target.
Because California is notoriously slow at counting ballots, some of the six hyper-competitive races there — critical to which party wins the majority in the House of Representatives — are likely to last days. But by Wednesday afternoon, the five Republican incumbents, whose races were rated “toss-ups” by Cook Political Report, were all leading their Democratic challengers.
The Golden State’s 13th District featured Republican Rep. John Duarte leading Democrat Adam Graywith about half of the votes received. In the Central Valley’s 22nd District, GOP Rep. David Valadao a lead of 10 points over Democrat Rudy Salas, with just over half of the votes counted. In the 27th District, GOP Rep. Mike Garcia was in attendance narrowly beating Democrat George Whitesides with 65% of the vote. In the 45th District, GOP Rep. Michelle Steel had a 5 point lead over Democrat Derek Tran, with more than 60 percent of the vote. And in the 41st District, so was former Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. flared Democrat Will Rollins, with 60% of the votes counted.
In another battleground race in California, NBC News projected On Wednesday, Republican Kevin Kiley defeated Democrat Jessica Morse.