RENTON, Wash. – Every time an NFL team goes on a long losing streak or drops five of six games as Seattle Seahawks Since late September, the backup quarterback has inevitably become one of the most popular players on the roster.
Not surprisingly, after Smith threw three interceptions, including a game-changing pick six inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, in a 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams on Sunday, the clamor for Sam Howell to take a shot under getting to the middle was only achieved. louder in the Pacific Northwest. If there was a time to pull that lever and the organization thought it would give them a boost as the Seahawks enter their bye week, now would be the ideal time to make a move.
But for fans who believe Howell would step under center and suddenly rid Seattle’s offense of the problems that have plagued the unit through nine games, it’s time to stop living in a fantasy world. The symptoms that led to Smith’s inconsistent play won’t magically disappear by switching quarterbacks, and in fact, past precedents suggest those symptoms would only be exacerbated by such a change.
In terms of raw numbers, Smith has thrown just 11 touchdown passes while tied for the league lead in interceptions (10). Part of that has to do with the fact that he’s completed more passes (342) than any quarterback by a wide margin in a one-dimensional offense, but most of all, the fact that he’s constantly under siege behind a terrible offensive line has given him one chance datum. hand tied behind his back while he spends most of the time trying to turn trash into 24-karat gold.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Smith is pressured to make more dropbacks than any other quarterback (147), but that number only tells part of the story. According to Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks, the veteran quarterback has faced 93 pressure points that were originally marked as blocked and turned into pressure within 2.5 seconds. In other words, the offensive line has identified who needs to be properly blocked in these situations and simply cannot protect him.
“We have to take better care of Geno during the game,” coach Mike Macdonald said Monday. “We have to be more efficient on those early downs so teams don’t hit us on second down. And that is difficult. In those situations we ultimately have to be ball dominant. We cannot endanger the ball. Geno knows that, that’s why he’s very hard on himself at the moment, so we have to do our job better.”
As would be the case for any quarterback, Smith’s numbers have dropped significantly under the weight of all that rushing pressure. According to the Pro Football Focus chart, he ranks 13th in completion percentage (49.2 percent), 26th in passer rating (49.5), fifth in turnover-worthy plays (seven) and first in interceptions (nine) when under pressure is set. Despite all this, he ranks 17th in sack-to-pressure ratio (18.3 percent), a testament to his ability to maneuver the pocket and extend plays.
But if Smith has had a clean pocket, few quarterbacks have been better this season. He currently ranks third in completion percentage (78.1), second in big throws (11), seventh in yards per attempt (8.4) and 10th in passer rating (108.6) on 233 clean dropbacks without pressure. He’s managed to do that while still ranking 24th in time to throw (3.25 seconds) on those plays.
A strong argument can be made that Smith has faced more adversity than most quarterbacks this season, with several of his 10 interceptions not being his fault.
From Seattle’s season opener against Denver, Smith, again thanks to shaky protection, took a shot below the knees on the team’s opening drive, causing his pass to fall well short of its intended target for an interception. Fast forward to Week 3 against Miami, he caught a pass from Calais Campbell at the line and it fell into the hands of Zach Sieler for a pick.
In just two additional examples of Smith’s bad luck, receiver DK Metcalf admitted to running the wrong route in the second half against the 49ers in Week 6, allowing the cornerback to undercut the throw while drifting downfield on a crosser. Last Sunday, while his second pick was a questionable call that backfired on a 106-yard touchdown return, his first interception bounced off the hands of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and his third came after AJ Barner was clearly pinned by a defensive lineman.
Based on that alone, it’s fair to say that at least 50 percent of Smith’s interceptions this season weren’t his fault, if not more. PFF charts support that sentiment, as they credit him with just 10 turnover-worthy plays for the entire season and a turnover-worthy play rate of 2.3 percent, which ranks 17th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks.
After opting not to make a last-second deal to bolster their offensive line, even if Abraham Lucas potentially returns after the bye, the chances of pass protection improving dramatically from here seem slim to none. If you were to put Howell, who led the league in interceptions and had 65 sacks with the Commanders last year, behind that group, you would be forgoing the white flag while rolling the dice on his development in a uni-ideal environment.
In reality, Smith has pushed Seattle to a 4-5 record by somehow putting up strong numbers in an offense that has been quite dysfunctional for most of the season for reasons beyond his control. Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, without a reliable run game to complement him, he had to shoulder the load in poor conditions. The number of quarterbacks who could do better in the same environment can probably be counted on one hand.
Just one game out in the NFC West, benching Smith now would be a horrible miscalculation for the Seahawks, and they would be learning the wrong lessons from a disappointing first half. Instead, while Macdonald says “everything is on the table” for evaluation during the bye, personnel and scheme changes should be the focus to provide more support for a quarterback who continues to be unfairly scrutinized and should be viewed as part of the solution. not the problem.
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