HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – On the eve of Election Day, Hawaii News Now political analyst Colin Moore shared his take on what we might see when the polls close.
Listen to the conversation via podcast:
As for the presidential election, how close is this race and what will be the deciding factors?
“We have never had such an exciting race in my life. It’s extraordinary to even have the battle scenes so close. You usually see a little movement here at the end, but this is still neck and neck. Now there may be what we as political scientists would call a systemic error in the polls. That means the polls are slightly off all the time. So on election night, you could see a more decisive victory for Trump or Harris than the polls predict. But the truth is, we just don’t know. But we do know one thing: one of the decisive factors will be the rise of women. Women have been more likely to turn out than men in early voting so far, and we know that women favor Vice President Harris over former President Trump by a significant margin.”
Do you expect us to know the results by the end of tomorrow evening?
“To be honest, I don’t do that. I think there are a lot of states that will still be counting their votes after election night, and some of those are crucial states, particularly Nevada and some others. So it’s entirely possible that we won’t know, but like I said, the polls could have failed too, and what we could end up with; it may be a surprise that either Trump or Harris wins more decisively than we predict, but at this point I think it’s unlikely we’ll know on election night or that either candidate will officially concede on election night.
What are you seeing here at home in terms of turnout during this election cycle?
‘I do expect that we will see some lines. I mean, part of that is because we know that Republicans, even here in Hawaii, prefer to vote in person. So I think it’s likely we’ll see some rules tomorrow. We may not be able to release the results as quickly as we would like, or at least as the elections office would like. I think the turnout will be a little lower. So we had an extraordinary turnout in the 2020 election. It was almost 70%, the highest level in Hawaii since 1994. We’re not going to achieve that in this general election, I don’t think. I suspect it will be a little over 58%. We had very low turnout in the primaries, but most people want to vote for the president, so I think we’ll be about average for Hawaii. So I estimate somewhere around 58%, but not nearly as high as four years ago in 2020.”
One of the most important races is the runoff for mayor of the Big Island between Mitch Roth and Kimo Alameda. What do you think are the key issues that residents are most focused on?
“This was the big race for our local elections. The most important topic is undoubtedly housing. Like everywhere else in our state, people are having trouble finding a place to live. The cost of living is truly extraordinary. That’s what those candidates spent a fair amount of their time doing.
The other thing is actually the responsiveness of the government. Team Alameda has criticized Mayor Roth for not being as responsive on issues like housing permits. The mayor said they have really made improvements, and there are a lot of improvements in the provincial government.
“The last problem seems to be something about geographical differences. Kimo Alameda has really emphasized that Kona doesn’t get as much attention as Hilo. And of course Mayor Roth has backed off and said he only has a limited number of employees, but he’s doing his best. What this issue really comes down to is: do you prefer Mayor Roth’s more gradual, process-oriented approach to leadership, or are you ready for something different? And Kimo Alameda has really presented himself as the change candidate in these elections.”
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