WASHINGTON— During thirteen months of brutal war in the Gaza Strip, the US has repeatedly pressured Israel to limit civilian casualties and allow more humanitarian aid.
Israel has repeatedly ignored US advice and requests, killing more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.. The flow of aid is so slow and is often stopped by Israel that many Palestinians face famine.
A similar pattern emerges in the offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US insisted that the bombings would be limited and targeted, but Israel blasted away in southern Lebanon, Beirut and as far north as Tripoli.
But when push came to shove Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranthe dynamics were different.
Iran launched a barrage of nearly 200 missiles and rockets into Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of several senior commanders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Most were intercepted by Israeli forces and air defense systems, backed by the US and Britain.
Israel immediately vowed to take revenge. The question was when and how.
President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to hit nuclear research sites and oil fields. And when Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at Iran on October 26, in the largest operation ever, they mainly hit military targets and only four people – all soldiers – were killed.
Here’s a look at the thinking behind Israel’s actions in Iran.
Why did Netanyahu limit the targets this time?
The Israeli Prime Minister undoubtedly recognized that Iran was another adversary, far more powerful and potentially more dangerous than the militant groups Hamas and even Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in the region. Iran would be in a position to respond more violently than these groups, even though the country has proven to be averse to direct conflict.
That, in turn, could lead to much greater escalation and destabilization across the region, potentially involving even more countries and drawing the US deeper into the conflict.
Israel has managed to destroy most of Gaza and is working on pulverize parts of Lebanon to international condemnation, outrage and political and diplomatic isolation, but without effective attempts to contain this. The price to pay for an all-out war with Iran would likely be higher.
Was it easy for him to make this decision?
Probably not. US officials put unusually strong pressure on Israel to scale back its targets, according to people familiar with the talks. Initially, nuclear sites as well as oil fields and other energy facilities were on the list. The Israelis agreed to remove the nuclear facilities because of the risks involved and the difficulty of disabling them. Ultimately, they also gave in to oil so as not to disrupt the global energy market.
After the October 1 Iranian barrage, Israel also apparently realized that it would not be able to repel a full-scale Iranian attack on its own and would need support from other countries. So the country could not risk alienating the US in these talks.
Several carrots were offered by the US
The Biden administration also convinced Israel by offering various incentives. It has imposed another round of sanctions on Iran, this time cracking down on so-called ghost ships, unmarked oil tankers that Iran allegedly uses to export illegal petroleum products; accelerated to Israel an advanced ballistic missile air defense system known as THAAD; and launched airstrikes on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen as a show of solidarity.
In lieu of nuclear and energy facilities, Israel said it has eliminated many Iranian missile batteries and missile production factories. With what it called precise airstrikes, Israel also crippled much of Iran’s air defense network, Netanyahu’s government said.
It was “as much as Israel could tolerate without a major schism with the Biden administration,” said Bradley Bowman, a military expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The operation has left Iran vulnerable, he said.
Is it over?
Under no circumstances. Both Israel and Iran say they want to avoid a fire, but both continue to threaten each other.