Joe Flacco has been given the keys to the Colts’ offense back, and he will put his arm to good use.
November 1, 2024 • 3:43 PM ET
• 4 minutes reading
Photo by – Imagn Images. Pictured: Joe Flacco steps back to let him fly to the Indianapolis Colts.
This could be a high-scoring primetime matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the host Minnesota Vikings, who are entering a two-game skid after a 5-0 start to the season.
With a competent passing QB under center again for Indianapolis and a Minnesota offense giving up to opposing receivers, my Colts vs. Vikings that Joe Flacco will throw a few TD passes.
Here are mine NFL picks for this Sunday Night Football game on Sunday, November 3.
Colts vs Vikings SNF prediction
My best choice
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
Over his last eight games dating back to last year with the Browns, ageless but competent Joe Flacco is averaging 291.5 passing yards, 24.3 completions and 2.5 passing TDs per game.
Those are crazy numbers and one reason why the noise to move on from Anthony Richardson was so loud after the Week 8 loss to the Texans.
Flacco hasn’t thrown fewer than two touchdowns in any of those eight games (seven starts) and has totaled 20 passing scores in that stretch. Just looking at his three games this year against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and the Titans, he has a TD:INT ratio of 7:1 with 716 passing yards.
Flacco now faces the Minnesota Vikingsallowing the most completions per game (26.6), the third most passing yards per game (263) and the fifth most passing TDs per game (2.0).
Add to that the Indianapolis foals could be the pursuit of points and an inside setting that increases passing volume and efficiency, and there’s no reason why bettors should doubt Flacco on Sunday night.
He has a lot of weapons as the market starts to stack up Josh Downs‘Overs because he has a 27% target share when Flacco plays, but Michael Pittman is another great target, as is Jonathan Taylor in the passing game.
The heavily used back didn’t get much work in the passing game under Richardson, but had his best receiving game in Week 4 with Flacco, picking up four targets for three grabs and 20 yards.
The book could be out on the tough defense, as opposing QBs have thrown for 12 TDs against the Vikes over the last four games. Books continue to despise Flacco.
Colts vs Vikings SNF parlay in the same game
Joe Flacco 2+ passing touchdowns
Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards
Josh Downs 6+ receptions
Flacco has yet to throw fewer than two touchdowns in any game since being called off the bench by the Browns last year. That is a period of eight games in which he also averages almost 300 meters per game.
Justin Jefferson is poised for another big game indoors against the Colts’ 23rd-ranked pass defense in EPA/dropback. The Minnesota WR is coming off his second 100-yard game and has yet to be held to fewer than 81 yards since Week 1.
In his five indoor games this year, Jefferson is averaging 102.3 yards per game on 12.8 targets, compared to 78.7 yards and 8.4 targets outdoors.
The final leg is Josh Downs, who the punters have been betting on. His Over 5.5 receptions have been as low as -170 in some places at the time of writing.
He is the most targeted receiver with Flacco under center at 27% and has games of seven, eight and nine receptions with Flacco for a total of 30 targets over three games. Let’s have a gunfight on Sunday night.
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Colts vs. Vikings Odds
Colts vs Vikings live odds
Colts vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +6.5 | Minnesota -6.5
- Moneyline: Indianapolis +255 | Minnesota-315
- Top/Bottom: Older than 46 | Under 46
Opportunities courtesy of bet365
Colts vs. Vikings spread and over/under analysis
- The Vikings were at -7 last week, reopened at -6.5, then dropped to -5.5 a day before the Flacco move was officially announced.
- Joe Flacco had just one game with running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 4 before getting injured and missing three straight games. It will be interesting to see the Colts’ run rate with Taylor in, but an upgrade in passing with Flacco, who threw the ball 26 times with Taylor and 44 and 38 times without him.
- Indoor games increase passing volume and efficiency. I don’t think it’s always priced in.
- The Vikings will get extra rest on Sunday after a 30-20 loss in Week 8 to the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Colts vs Vikings betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 units / 33% ROI). Find more NFL Betting for Colts vs. Vikings.
Colts vs Vikings game information
| Location: | US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date: | Sunday 11-3 2024 |
| Kick-off: | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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